By Bryan Livingston
Oil prices topped $61 a barrel as the New Year was barely three days old, in a price rise that we predicted last summer as other industry experts fretted that oil had dipped to $42.
When prices hit a low point six months ago, we were unwavering in our forecast for a return to rising crude prices in the second half and going forward. Today, we are pleased to see prices pushed higher by market fundamentals that we saw taking hold back when others suggested prices might continue going lower.
In July, as prices dipped, we talked about how strong and sustained global demand would eventually carry the day, and it has — and will continue to do so. We reiterated our confidence in September that oil prices would rise and that “lower for longer” was near its end.
Here’s what we said in September: “Our view is that world demand for oil in 2018 and 2019 will be strong and sustained, with plenty of upside for producers and the energy sector companies that serve them.”
The reason for our confidence then, and now, as others wavered: a decade of cuts in global exploration and production capital spending will likely curtail supplies for years to come while demand continues to grow around the world.
Here’s what we said six months ago that still holds true: “We believe the industry’s fundamentals will ultimately win the day.”
Here’s to a robust 2018 for the oil & gas industry.